By Jeff Pritchard, Malaria Partners International Board Chair


In a September 21, 2020 article appearing in the respected Lancet publication entitled, “Indirect Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Malaria Intervention Coverage in Africa,” computerized models were used to forecast different scenarios of malaria resurgence throughout Africa dependent upon the level of COVID based interruptions. In the forecasters’ worst-case scenario, illustrated in the map above, the three countries with far and away the worst possible malaria resurgence occurred in the three countries in which Malaria Partners International has been working the most – Uganda, Zambia and the Gambia.  If COVID interrupts malaria intervention efforts by 75%, forecasters see a tripling of malaria deaths in these three countries – by far the worse results of any of the 54 African nations.  A sobering reminder on the critical importance of maintaining malaria elimination efforts.